I think thinking Flash is outdated. Keep in min this comes from someone who is a reformed art director. the web is about content and accessibility. It is not a proprietary app , or a plug in to even a beautiful presentation it is content. Content that is styled. The minute that spinning the logo or making it bounce becomes more important than the "name of the company" text, you have failed, whether you used flash or not.
Assuming you keep what I said above in mind , many other alternate are emerging that allow for styling and presentation which, in a sense, emulate the capabilities of flash, albeit without the WYSIWG app for developers. As mentioned above iDevices dont have or plan on supporting Flash. Right now thats a big chunk of the mobile pop., but at the same time populations are notoriously fickle. Every one could go android next year and that platform happily supports Flash.
If you code web "applications", games or making flash-movies (remember Foamy?) , for example... think flash is understandable ( just note that you arbitrarily will lose the mac mobile market) . As a movie or audio player I think it's a lazy way out, for anything else : menus, slides, presentations then you have missed the point of the web.