paulson — 2010-06-08T02:40:29-04:00 — #1
Steve said "When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular.
"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."
Is the launch of i Pad a beginning for the end of PCs?
My view: I don't see the fall in demand for PCs at least for another decade, PC markets are still in the growth phase in many developing countries, then what prompted Steve jobs to make such statements?. was it a part of the promotional campaign for i Pads?
navidimran — 2010-06-15T16:29:23-04:00 — #2
Steve Jobs view on the lesser use of Desktop PC in the near future is a far fetched idea. It might happen but at least not in the coming 20 years owing to the fact that the desktops are more user friendly and simple to use for the orthodox people.
trifectatech — 2010-06-10T11:22:27-04:00 — #3
Hey, don't get me wrong at this point I do feel that the iPad is quite useless for the typical consumer save for having a new toy. But to your point:
-connecting an iPad to a keyboard makes typing easier
-the iPad does [display HD in 720p which is plenty for a 10 inch device and there are phones like the Sprint Evo 4g that even have [URL="http://www.htc.com/us/products/evo-sprint#tech-specs"]hdmi out at 720p](http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad?mco=OTY2ODA0NQ)
-iOS 4 coming out with iMovie for basic video editing which will come out for the iPad later this year
-Every smart phone with skype or something else can make VoIP calls right now and I've been making voip calls with smart phones since 2003 with windows mobile (except I'll probably not do that again)
-A Call of Duty game came out for the iPhone and iPod Touch late last year
And this is now. Imagine what's going to happen in five years. When Steve Jobs was talking about the post-PC era, he wasn't just talking about the iPad. He's talking about phones and slates specifically being more prevalent than laptops and desktops. And the fact that phones and slates can do the vast majority of the things you just listed right now further makes Steve sound right about this.
webcreationuk — 2010-06-10T07:06:02-04:00 — #4
This is only Steve's fantasy, unfortunately for him desktop will have their place many years from now on.
ralphm — 2010-06-10T07:32:21-04:00 — #5
I'm sure that's sweet music to the marketer's ears. He just got a big Christmas bonus, no doubt. :lol:
alexdawson — 2010-06-11T19:24:51-04:00 — #6
Ironically, for most of the people out there (that 95% someone mentioned) who just want to browse the web, send and receive emails, possibly type a few notes in a word processor and play some games, they could do most of that (with some limitations) on any good smartphone. I can actually see a future where only the most technologically inclined of us will have a laptop or similar device and where many of the general public do everything they want through their phone. Seems crazy? Think how the iPhone has changed the world, the number of smartphone users (beyond the ole tablet or palm pilot style era) has sky-rocketed to insane proportions. Stats show thousand(s) fold increases of people browsing the web on cellphones and handheld devices, sales of apps on the iStore are into the billions and smart-phones are outselling the old style generic phone by a huge amount. What normal person will want a bulky laptop when their cellphone is as powerful as some Netbooks (and their only getting better) and can do much of what they need? I am seriously tempted to buy an iPhone myself, and I can see the appeal these devices hold.
michaelray — 2010-06-10T06:49:15-04:00 — #7
Can you type comfortably at 50 words per minute on iPad? Can you watch HD in iPad? Can you actually do video editing or Photoshop editing in iPad? Make VoIP calls? Play new games like Call of Duty? Counter Strike?
I don't think so and most household do one or a couple of things with those I mentioned.
I think people who buy iPad because they think they need it and also its nice to flaunt it around. My cousin asked me once if she will get an iPad or a netbook. I told her get a netbook because it has more uses than iPad. She agreed 100 percent with me but she said she like an iPad because its "nice". Now she's using it even though she doesn't need it.
kohoutek — 2010-06-08T22:21:21-04:00 — #8
Shouting is not allowed.
For hardcore designers, 3d animation specialists, movie makers, (some hardcor gamers) etc., I doubt the desktop (in some cases also laptop) will go anywhere for quite some time.
And I realise ShinoKage has already said all of that. I'm still leaving my comment in.
trifectatech — 2010-06-09T08:36:15-04:00 — #9
Just as was said earlier, just like we still need trucks to transport goods, we will always need PC's so that at the very least applications and content that are consumed by consumers can continue to be produced. This is also why Apple would be very remiss if they did not ensure Mac OS X is the platform to develop those applications. And this PC-less era is not as far fetched as people think: the decrease in desktops are a good example of this I believe. I've seen whole companies that operate solely on laptops, monitors, and docking stations because notebooks have the power to do the things desktops can. I can easily see phones coming out with docking stations and all of your computing being done through your phone. That would be really interesting.
and I appreciated this a lot haha
shinokage — 2010-06-08T22:04:52-04:00 — #10
nooooo, everything i know is wrong!!!! It's all a lie!!!
aww, it didn't let me post in all caps >.> what the heck?
felgall — 2010-06-08T15:54:45-04:00 — #11
The PC era ended when IBM released the XT.
Since then microcomputers have diversified greatly into a wide spectrum of different capabilities from powerful networks of servers through integration into other devices (such as phones, fridges etc) each of which has its own use.
All Apple has done with the iPad is to produce a product to help fill another of those gaps.
raena — 2010-06-08T07:32:17-04:00 — #12
Think about how many people you know, right now, who just use their computers to do stuff like reading email, using Facebook, checking out websites.
A PC is arguably overkill for those people already. All kinds of smartphones are good enough for lots of people already. The iPad is here and more tablets are coming to the market quick smart, and they're going to get cheaper and cheaper.
I'd argue that it's happening now.
ralphm — 2010-06-08T09:04:53-04:00 — #13
Yeah, that's my wife. We'll probably get her an iPad soon, as that's all she needs. She wants to browse the web and read ebooks on the sofa... hates the desktop.
Then it's hard to trust anything he says, IMHO. When he announced the iPad he specifically said that it was intended not to replace the PC but to fall in between phones and PCs. I was disappointed with that, so I'm glad that he's talking like this now. But it is inconsistent.
redmunds1 — 2010-06-08T13:43:14-04:00 — #14
I am getting to a point where I don't know that I would ever need a desktop again. I have a netbook and a more powerful laptop (set up in desktop style atm) and I dabble video audio/video editing. I even use photoshop and program websites right here on my netbook.
I can't see the iPad supporting the wealth of software that is available to me as a Windows user. I have so many different kinds of software that do similar things for different focuses.
bluedreamer — 2010-06-08T07:29:21-04:00 — #15
Let's face it, 95%+ of people don't need the full power of a full desktop/laptop computer, so in that respect Mr Jobs is probably spot on.
ralphm — 2010-06-08T05:31:04-04:00 — #16
By PC I assume we are talking about fully fledged computers (including desktops and laptops)? "PC" often refers to Windows-based devices too...
Jobs has said that the iPad will not be made to function like a desktop/laptop, but until it does I don't see too big a drop off in usage. Personally I would prefer a flat computer like that, but he doesn't seem to think there's a market for it.
shinokage — 2010-06-08T13:36:24-04:00 — #17
I would have to agree with the above comments. There are waaaaaay too many people who have desktops/laptops and all they use it for is to check email. So for those types of people I would suggest a cheap netbook, but if the purpose of the iPad is just that - to surf the web, read ebooks, etc - then that would be perfect (other than the price tag, seeing as how I can get a laptop for less than that).
I honestly do feel that desktops are really only for people who, well, need that kind of power and space - programmers, designers, gamers. But because of that, no, they never will die out (of course I guess that brings back the truck analogy). The people that need them will still use them (and the people who THINK they need them will also still use them).
And since we're talking about apple, I've always held the notion that apples are well suited for people who aren't too tech-savvy. The problem is that since that demographic is the way they are, they don't know enough to realize they should be getting that OS. But, obviously, that's just my personal opinion.
paulson — 2010-06-08T07:15:03-04:00 — #18
Apple’s Steve Jobs says the personal computer is soon to be a relic of a bygone age
He further said: the day is coming when only one out of every few people will need a traditional computer.
Jobs said advances in chips and software will allow tablet devices like the iPad to do tasks that today are really only suited for a traditional computer, things like video editing and graphic arts work.
The move, Jobs said, will make many PC veterans uneasy, “because the PC has taken us a long ways.”
“We like to talk about the post-PC era, but when it really starts to happen, it’s uncomfortable,” he said.
Summarizing all these points, these points indicate that he talks about the end of personal computers and it is likely to happen very soon.
raena — 2010-06-08T19:46:46-04:00 — #19
Y'know, the majority of the awesome geeks I worked with at SitePoint, and work with now at my new job, are using Macs almost exclusively.
On my production floor we have just a few Windows PCs and they all belong to the project managers -- the technical folks are mostly Mac, with a few Ubuntu dudes in the sysadmin area.